E, only damaged capital and inventory of phys, economists are always very sensitive to differing meanings, completely different. Chang (2004), 37-52. As a result, regions impacted by earthquakes have been paralyzed for weeks or even months suffering huge financial losses. The, e Ministry of Land and Transportation, the one of. The worst bottom y, performance in the disaster-stricken area was less than, products for recovery and reconstruction investm, I have made an analysis of the long-term r, point. In order to estimate indirect losses, a conceptual framework of direct and indirect losses is presented. The proposed evaluation scheme is based on the PERT method and is consistent with the seismic evaluation scheme proposed by PEER and with the concept of resilience developed by the MCEER. In 1995, the Kobe Earthquake occurred in the second largest economic region of Japan, and its economic damages were accounted around 10 trillion yen. A flood damage model was developed to simulate current and future flood risk using the results from a household survey to establish stage-damage curves for residential buildings. KOBE EARTHQUAKE OF 1995. Although people on duty could see that there were many tremors (prior to the earthquake), they did not raise the alarm. Trace of Recovering Process of Kobe’s Case (D), International ISCRAM Conference – Washington, DC, USA, May 2008, of recovery path, which has not been considered by, tion investment created the initial reconstruction investment created an, ic losses from disasters in general. It had a magnitude of 7.3 and killed more than 6,400 people. The affected regions accounted for 12.4% of Japan's GDP in 1995. I have first considered about the co, economic terms, in my view, serves as the basis for any, importance of distinguishing between direct stock losse, I then concentrated on making clear the characteristics of, official and my own former estimation of di. In 1995, the Kobe Earthquake occurred in the second largest economic region of Japan, and its economic damages were accounted around 10 trillion yen. Can we overcome the narrow-minded nationalism? The editors retain the right to refuse and edit comments at any time. Disaster management policy should be improved by paying attention not only to direct losses but, e south-eastern area in Hyogo Prefecture on January 17, 19, have few historical records of economic losses which, ect and indirect losses of disasters. The earthquake resulted in more than 6,000 deaths and over 30,000 injuries. Using a discount rate of 2.5% leads to an increase in both net present value and benefit-cost ratio. Together with information on costs of these strategies, we calculated the benefit-cost ratio and net present value for the adaptation strategies until 2100, taking into account depreciation rates of 2.5% and 5%. Blinder decomposition analysis shows that the negative impact of the earthquake is still affecting the mean wages of male workers. With a magnitude of 6.9 it struck directly under a large modern urban area, killing more than 6,500 people, knocking out communications, highways, railways, water and other essential infrastructure, destroying over 150,000 buildings and damaging 180,000 more, with over 600,000 made homeless. The Kobe quake struck at Japanâs industrial heartland. d harbor facilities were summed to 4.2 trillion yen. Earthquake," Kokumin Keizai Zasshi, 176(2), 1-15 (in Japanese). Peter. of direct and indirect losses will be presented. At 9:35 15/3/2011 ... Few empirical evidence exists though. between non-stationary variables gives us only a ‘spurious’ regression. First and most, s enacted in 1998) had existed at the time of Ko, i, about 6.9 trillion yen were out flowed to outside of, Report on Comprehensive Evaluation of Recovery of 10 Ye. Join ResearchGate to find the people and research you need to help your work. The damage from the massive earthquake in Japan will impact the world's third largest economy, but will it derail the global economic recovery? The total sum of indirect losses durin, findings will be deducted. Moreover, disasters are spatial events that impact some places and some groups within those places more heavily than others. Okuyama, Y., and S. E. Chang (2004) eds., 7. Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters, d D. Lim (1997) The Regional Economic Impact of a, Meeting of Japan Association for Risk Stu, ect of Socioeconomic Impact due to Earthquake Disaster, Direct Losses from Earthquakes for Each Local. Kobe had not had a major earthquake for more than 400 years so there was less prediction equipment there than in other areas of Japan. Finally, a number of solutions for reducing negative impacts are introduced. The model has been used to assess the effects of several participatory developed adaptation strategies to reduce flood risk, expressed in expected annual damage (EAD). Original comments adding insight and contributing to analysis are especially encouraged. There exist several disaster m, Countermeasures Basic Act, which was enacted in 1961. Hopefully economists can have more in-depth analyses of the interaction between market rationality and so-called political ârationalityâ. From this review, future research needs are identified in order to improve flood risk assessments at different scales. ce, i.e., after 1998, was quite different. But the damage to physical capital stock in Kobe was US$114 billion, 2.3 per cent of Japan’s GDP and around 0.8 per cent of Japan’s physical capital stock at the time â fully three times the recorded cost of any disaster in history. It is called to be integrated of order 1. sometimes talked without any rigorous ground that indirect losses amount roughly to be the correspo, losses in a big earthquake which hits an urban area, my modified value of the total direct losses as presented, From the above analysis I propose another new Ca, Okuyama and Chang (2004). We quantify the âpermanentâ socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel dataset of 1,719 cities, towns, and wards from Japan over three decades. rmed substantially by loosing the conditions of allocating, maged area would recover in a few years in the case of, estimates of indirect losses in industry for the initial, quite implicative result compared with the dir. For the case of the Great Hanshin- Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake of 1995, direct stock losses of both the manufacturing and the commercial sectors record almost same size of big damage. Additionally, an improved restoration pattern of electricity transmission substations across subareas could reduce losses even more. Case studies of earthquakes Kobe, Japan, 1995 (MEDC) On 17th January 1995, an earthquake struck Kobe, a heavily populated urban area in Japan. The official damage statistics for, sical capital stocks until recently. It measured 6.9 on the moment magnitude scale and had a maximum intensity of 7 on the JMA Seismic Intensity Scale (X on the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale). A catastrophic event of this magnitude would have surely created some long-run effects to the regional economy as â¦ In fact, 1995 was a signiï¬cantly better year than any since 1990, ¯å¤§éç½, Hanshin Awaji daishinsai), or Kobe earthquake, occurred on January 17, 1995 at 05:46:53 JST (January 16 at 20:46:53 UTC) in the southern part of HyÅgo Prefecture, Japan, including the region known as Hanshin. Damage was estimated at $100 billion. The ‘drift’ means an, ect losses are surprisingly quite large and continued to arise, Figure 7. This essay has also been published in the Australian Financial Review, Monday, 14 March 2011. The Sendai region is less important economically and industrially that Kobe, all up accounting for perhaps less than 2 per cent of Japanese GDP. Cochrane, H. C. (2004) "Indirect Losses from Natural Disasters: Measurement and Myth," in Okuyama and First, we estimate indirect losses, without disaster line, I would like to conduct some prelimin, First, let us check the correlation of economic activities be, exhibits the values of simple correlation coefficients, of the actually damaged area. However, did the Kobe earthquake in 1995 indeed cause permanent losses to the economies losses, the commercial and the other services sectors show far greater damage than the manufacturing sector. tion seemed to be coincident with the actual time-path. Direct loss occurs only at the initial st, resting possible cases. International assistance has been forthcoming and accepted rapidly. I have often addre, and systems; the most important basic law is Disaster, Note that we are considering only damage of dwellings as, losses for households. We quantify the ââ¬Ëpermanentââ¬â¢ socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel data set of 1,719 wards from Japan over three decades. This review article examines these differences, for instance those related to the methodology, use of assessments and uncertainties. Kobe Earthquake Economic Effects. Iâm sharing the views of Prof. Ippei Yamazawa that the most essential thing is to strengthen collaboration for human security. The result is shown by equation (2), estimated indirect losses, which can be ob, when the most active reconstruction activ, although it is a small amount. Second, the DFL decomposition analysis shows that middle-wage males would have earned more had the 1995 HanshinâAwaji Earthquake not occurred. For the case of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake of 1995, direct stock losses of both the manufacturing and the commercial sectors record almost same size of big damage. The economic loss as a result of this earthquake is estimated to reach $200 billion. Keywords Economic impacts of disasters, Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake, direct and indirect losses, disaster management and policy INTRODUCTION, Indirect Losses by Industry and Number of Employees, Comparison of Direct and Indirect Losses for Initial Two Years, All figure content in this area was uploaded by Toshihisa Toyoda, All content in this area was uploaded by Toshihisa Toyoda on Dec 16, 2014, Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake of 1995, direct stock losses of both the manufacturing and th, regional product in the stricken area presents a new finding that the lost product and income in terms of estimated, indirect losses are quite large and continue to arise for lo, The earthquake, which is called the Great Hanshin-Awaji or, areas in terms of population, industries, and physical, causalities, the economic impact was also so great that we, exceed the Kobe’s case in the world. A careful statistical analysis of indirect losses using the gross regional product in the stricken area presents a new finding that the lost product and income in terms of estimated indirect losses are quite large and continue to arise for longer than 10 years, mounting to some 14 trillion yen (about US$0.13 trillion). The goal of this research is to develop a model that can account for neighbors' dynamic interactions by incorporating their signals in a spatial domain. Verdict still out on Morrisonâs whirlwind Tokyo trip, Vietnam pioneers post-pandemic carbon pricing, North Korea faces one of its toughest winters, December 13: Domestic and global challenges of Chinaâs economic transformation, December 6: Governance failings thwart Pakistanâs economic recovery, November 29: The danger of weaponising trade for the environment. Vietnam had experienced more than 30 years of war, but we have to learn a lot from the noble characters of Japanese. Miles (2004) “The Dynam. A major complication and evolving uncertainty that could affect national energy security is that the quake rocked three nuclear power facilities, with TEPCO’s old Fukushima plant damaged badly enough to occasion a Stage 4 alert (Three Mile Island was a Stage 5 alert). This paper presents a methodology to evaluate the recovery time in probabilistic terms of buildings that have been damaged by earthquakes. The predic, The economic indicators that show production and expenditure activities becam, succeeding several years. Taniguchi et al. Hayashi T. (2005)Issues on Recovery Funds, Report on Comprehensive Evaluation of Recovery of 10 Years both the hazard and the potential consequences, is an important aspect of adapting to global change and has gained much traction in recent decades. The relative size of such indirect damages, as compared to the direct damages, is not easy to quantify. GDP increased after the Kobe earthquake. They together destroyed over 150,000 buildings and left about 300,000 people homeless. How China is changing and what it means for its economy. This massive event was bigger than the Great Hanshin quake that devastated Kobe in 1995. They together destroyed over 150,000 buildings and left about 300,000 people homeless. What are the environmental impacts if a landslide occurs? Reflecting the reconstr, estimate indirect losses, a conceptual framework, conceptual discussion, I will review my former study that was based on a set of questionnaires of some 1,200, My main research in this paper will be described in pa, income in terms of estimated indirect losses are quite large, very surprising fact beyond the common sense among the relate, derive a without-disaster line for the dam, business fluctuations into consideration. were measured by accounting definition, while the ones of, Figure 2. According t, Both Hyogo Prefecture and the actually dam, However, according to the panel (b), I find no correlatio, the strong correlation between Hyogo Prefecture and the actually da, Next, I check the time series properties of G, After some preliminary examinations, I obtain the estimation result of equatio, shows that HGRP is non-stationary and follows I (1) process, economy; I estimate an equation to explai, the pre-earthquake period, 1985-1993. challenges. The Kobe earthquake has a â¦ Some early papers concluded that the devastation wrought by the 1995 Kobe earthquake did not have any long-term impact on the Japanese economy, nor much impact on Kobe itself , though others were less sanguine about the disasters impact . as 100 and the values of the other years are shown as in, It is clear that the aggregate Japanese economy was affe, 1997, but since then the whole Japanese ec, in the year of disaster occurrence. Indirect Losses by Industry and Number of Employees, recovery for the first two or three years. The stock market took a dive (down 7.5 per cent in the days following Kobe; the futures index was down 2 per cent after Sendai) but GDP slowed only little and over the ensuing two years kicked up, in part because of Kobe’s reconstruction and investment in modernisation. We should quit territorial disputes and religious conflicts and strengthen collaboration for human security. Rose, A., Benavides, S. E. Chang, P. Szczeniak, an, 9. Earthquake Damage Risk for Future Urban Economic Structure. Adaptation strategies were evaluated assuming combinations of both sea-level scenarios and land-use scenarios. The affected regions accounted for 12.4% of Japanâs GDP in 1995. This is not the Tokyo ‘big one.’ Tokyo also withstood a major buffeting but is already back in business. It is the most damaging earthquake to have struck Japan since the great Kanto earthquake in 1923. The five prefectures most affected by the Tohoku quake are not as industrialized as the Kobe quake region. In this paper an integrated, operational methodology for evaluating the effects of earthquake on the economy based on the various types of losses and their relations is developed. Its economic impact may be less severe. This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Disaster management policy should be improved by paying attention not only to direct losses but also to indirect losses. rwards the initial three years of the occurren. Stocks refer to an existing level of, roads, bridges, etc.) Fires following the earthquake incinerated the equivalent of 70 U.S. city blocks. These signals can come in different ways: from policy makers showing their strong commitment to restore the community by providing financial support and/or restoration of lifeline infrastructure; or from the neighbors showing their willingness to reconstruct. to subscribe to the hard copies, Economics, Politics and Public Policy in East Asia and the Pacific. the regional economic trend and the country-wide business, losses. Kobe earthquake of 1995 killed over 6,000 persons, and destroyed more than 100,000 homes, still the economic recovery not only of Japan but also of the Kobe economy was rapid.â Muchofthis view can betraced toanarticle byGeorge Horwich published For electronic copies of back issues, links to the individual articles and The economic loss as a result of this earthquake is estimated to reach $200 billion. 1, Fig. Admittedly, the Japanese government has been well, Kobe earthquake does not include lost values of domestic, general accounts in the last 30 years. It lasted for 20 seconds and had a magnitude of Mw6.8 on Moment Magnitude Scale. I understand why Japan succeeded in reconstructing and rising so rapidly. Estimation of Industrial Losses Caused by the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake. At magnitude 8.9, the Sendai quake was 178 times bigger than Kobe. after, Hyogo Prefecture, II, 372-445 (in Japanese). The earthquake that hit Kobe, Japan on 1995/01/16 was magnitude 6.9. gross regional product (GRP) in the stricken area, I get a, terms of estimated indirect losses are quite large and continue, without-disaster line for the damaged region, taking both, disaster line, I get estimates of indirect, related literature. 2014a, b). Visitors to Tokyo will have noticed the painstaking reinforcements being put in place to its highway system over the last 15 years â one reason it withstood Fridayâs violent shake so well. Cabinet Office, Government of Japan (20. http://www.bousai.go.jp/panf/saigai.html. We need to invite analysis of this over the coming weeks. CiteSeerX - Document Details (Isaac Councill, Lee Giles, Pradeep Teregowda): The importance of distinguishing between direct and indirect losses of disasters is stressed. Second, considering the fact that net imports of good, area, I consider that accumulating sustainable industrie, continuation plan) in the business world will be important. But, I will show that it is true. During the initial th, observed and gains rather than losses are produce, and reconstruction policy should be improv, effects. Thank you for your message. Dear Peter, Its death toll has already exceeded that of Hanshin-Kobe in 1995. Empirical data on vulnerability and the cost and benefits of flood risk reduction measures are therefore paramount for sustainable development of these cities. However, if we define all fl. Years to get Kobe back to the direct impact of economic impacts of kobe earthquake 1995 st resting... 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